Saturday, December 08, 2012

Campus recruitments in India

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy

With more engineering colleges than decent primary schools, India is producing countless engineering graduates primarily aiming at the lucrative IT industry. These guys look forward to their campus recruitment drives to land up with Infosys, Wipro, HCL and the likes - much to the envy of their parents and uncles next door.

What would these uncles and fuming distant relatives do if they learn about IIT campus recruitment (whatever they call it) outcomes in IIT. Of course, they might have heard about big ticket salaries for IIM gards, but for techies ..

Yes, guys are booked from IITs in the mid Rs 20 lakhs range. No need to be hyped about Samsung's annual package of $150,000 (Rs 81.6 lakh) offered to IIT Madras students. The posting is going to be overseas. But offering more than 20 lakhs tells why we have mushrooming IIT coaching centers in every city right from 7th standard.

Parenting is consumed by envy and greed. Not easy being a parent and good person at the same time, like you are either happy or right in marriage.

News about IIT placement


Sunday, December 02, 2012

New book 'Warren Buffett - an Investography'


I am very happy to share the news about a new kindle book Warren Buffett - an Investography. It can be read from amazon.com site. It can be read with Kindle device. Otherwise it can can also be read on your desktop or laptop by installing free ‘Kindle for PC’ application that can be downloaded from http://www.amazon.com/gp/kindle/pc/download.

For detailed information about how to read kindle books in PC, please refer to this previous post.

Writing a new book on Warren Buffett is a challenging things since volume of books are already written. Like sex, reading

Warren Buffett biography

, is never going to bore.

Now product description of the book from amazon site.
Interesting account of world’s most successful investor. The book gives a detailed information on how a boy from Omaha became most revered man amongst investors around the globe. 

Warren Buffett had been the wealthiest man in the world. He has been number two and number three. He accumulated every penny of his fortune from the word go. Not only that. He multiplied in many times and helped whole lot of his shareholders becoming millionaires in that process. He is a standing example that success in stock market is nothing but manifestation of commonsense and high school mathematics. 

Contrary to the popular belief that you should be in Wall Street to operate in financial world, he stayed back in Omaha and inspired average men and women like us that any one of us can beat the market filled with self-styled experts. He mockingly said, “Omaha is as good a spot as any. Here you can see the forest. In New York, it's hard to see beyond the trees”

He focused his time, energy and capital into meaningful investment opportunities. In his own words: “I'd rather have a $10 million business making 15 percent than a $100 million business making 5 percent”

He developed a clear conviction which directed his investment decisions. He kept on remembering the words ‘You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you’ of his mentor Benjamin Graham, and acted upon his ‘Buy when others sell and sell when others buy’ mantra. He said, “You are dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; its like a great big casino, and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with Pepsi, you should be okay.” Buffett strongly recommends to turn a blind eye to all stock recommendation from brokers. If asked why, he would say: “Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.”

When the markets peaked he had the mental strength to hold his nerves by saying, “I feel like an oversexed guy on a desert Island. I (didn’t) find anything to buy”. When everyone shied away from equity investment he jumped in declaring, “I feel like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is the time to start investing”

Though he kept on saying that a fat wallet is the enemy of superior investment results and his past achievements could not be replicated in the future, he kept on beating his own estimates and continues to add wealth to Berkshire shareholders.

Perhaps no other practicing capitalist has done so much towards investor education and improvement of corporate accountability as Warren Buffett. On top of that, he has pledged to give away his hard earned money back to the society through philanthropy, instead of passing on the estate to his heirs. 

Buffett said, “The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.”

This book chronicles his transformation from a little known boy to world famous investor, both in terms of wealth and wisdom. Should benefit common public and investors alike in helping themselves.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Free ebook download of 'The Science of Stock Market Investment'

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy


Get 100 % discount on the purchase of “The Science of Stock Market Investment - Practical Guide to Intelligent Investors”

All you need to do is.

2. Buy the book at http://www.amazon.com/dp/B009XUI1X6 and write few lines of review in amazon.com after reading it. (Refer to 'How to read kindle ebook' post for more details) The comment can be fair and honest. It does not have to be positive and portray only good things about it.
3.  Post the same comments on your facebook page, google + or blog  and give link to the book
4. Get back 100% of the book cover price as rebate 

Friday, November 16, 2012

Foreword for 'The Science of Stock Market Investment'

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy


Mr.Nagappan is an eminent speaker cum writer when it comes to stock market investment.  His profile goes like : “Stock Broker, Investment Doktor, Writer, Author, Columnist, Director, Madras Stock Exchange Ltd and Chairman, MSE Institute of Capital Markets; Vice President-STOWA, Chairman - Expert Committee on Capital Markets, Hindustan Chamber. . . .”

I have known Mr.Nagappan for quite some time now and he gave me the opportunity to present a guest lecture in the regular Investor Awareness Program conducted at Madras Stock Exchange. Despite his tight schedule, he agreed to read the book ‘The Science of Stock Market Investment - Practical Guide to Intelligent Investors’ and write a foreword. My sincere thanks to the director of MSE.

Now over to him..

15-Nov-2012:

“Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius — and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.”
― E.F. Schumacher, British Economist & Statistician.
Fascinating world of Stock Market is normally considered as exciting but, a complex animal. CK is more qualified to write this book than any other “Intelligent Expert”, as he always has the knack of looking at things from a learner’s perspective, than from a top down approach.

Chellamuthu Kuppusamy - somebody who blogs on investments: this is how I know about him in the beginning/earlier days. But when I started reading some of them, I got glued on to it. Not even in my dreams I thought he is from IT Industry. Only when I invited him for the monthly meeting/Talk at the Madras Stock Exchange, I learnt about it. I was surprised when I read out his profile to the audience while introducing him and wondered what made a technology geek to take interest in stock markets. But, he kept the audience spell bound throughout the session.

My disbelief is not without reason. IT in boom in India is leaving a huge disposable surplus at the hands of the younger generation; it is extremely important that they should know how to save prudently and invest wisely for their own betterment and for the betterment of the future India. But, talk to young people from the IT Industry – most of them below the age of thirty five - on investment planning or financial planning and you will realise that they immediately go to sleep mode. Still worse is, when you start talking to them on stock markets – they go to a total switch-off mode. I won’t blame them while the reason being that not many books are available on this subject, which talks in their language.

After reading “The Science of Stock Market Investing”, I sincerely believe that CK must have realised it and decided to write this book on stock market investing, from the learners’ perspective.

Leonardo da Vinci said “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.” This book is written in an easy to understand format, with numerous illustrated examples in current context, plenty of helpful hints and useful tips you will find along the way, which is bound to make the learning process more fun.

The best thing about this book is that it is one of the rare/few books written in the Indian context, with Indian audience & Indian markets in mind. Practical and more recent examples from Indian markets are used to explain the pitfalls while investing. The handholding is done by fictional characters like Mr Money & Mr Market.

Apart from the customary learning of the basics of fundamental analysis and technical analysis, including EPS, PE Ratio, Face Value & Book Value, etc., the concepts and techniques explained in this book, using sports and science as learning tools, are captivating. It tells you what you can learn from Rahul Dravid and his style of batting. It also tells you what you can learn about stock market investing from Newton and his laws! Have you ever thought that you can learn about stock markets from a scientist and a cricketer?

Timing of the book is great! The book is more relevant today, since the launch of second phase of reforms by Government of India. Following the latest set of reforms & policy initiatives, FIIs faith in Indian markets have gone up and have started pouring in money into Indian stocks. It is pertinent that our younger generation should also actively participate in this wealth creation, by learning the ropes of stock market investing.

In the long run, Stock markets are the best way to earn the extra bucks, beating the high inflation. With no job guarantee and social security, it is essential that the gen-y starts saving & invest it wisely in investments which will fetch them better returns.

On personal front, for a person like me who has co-authored 6 books on personal finance & investments and written hundreds of articles on this subject, reading this book was a pleasure and in fact, a relearning process on many counts.

The books are normally written for day traders, jobbers, brokers, analysts, et al, with an overload of information, which can be overwhelming for a discerning learner. In contrast, this book is written by a passionate learner cum expert, with both the learner and expert in mind.
Arming yourself with this information can help you take decisions that will build a strong foundation for your peaceful future/financial freedom. Endless possibilities are open due to technological advancement; You can now trade online, sitting at comfort of your home. Roll up your sleeves, get ready to dive in and get started.

Cheers!

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Kovalam - Beautiful beach

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy


When you hear the name ‘Kovalam’ you would only imagine the beach on the Arabian Sea in Kerala. There is a Kovalam on the eastern coast as well. It is a beautiful coastal village almost 40 km south of Chennai.

Wikipedia says that the place was developed by the Nawab of Carnatic, Saadat Ali. It was taken over by the French in 1746, and destroyed by the British in 1752.
                                                                                                                   
This is not an erotic beach filled with white skinned women on their bikinis basking under hot sun – yet an exotic one.

Some pictures taken at Kovalam beach this evening… (time stamp in GMT)



























Saturday, November 03, 2012

How to read Amazon Kindle ebook on PC

Here are some simple steps to read Amazon Kindle ebooks on personal computer.

1. Create an account in www.amazon.com, with your email ID and amazon password.
2. Download kindle for PC (or smart phone or tablet etc) from the link mentioned here. This is a FREE application.
3. Install the downloaded application in your system
4. Then launch 'Kindle for PC application' by double clicking the below icon in your desktop

5. It will prompt you to enter your amazon user ID and password to register your Kindle for PC application. Once this is done, your application is synchronized with your amazon account.

6. Now log in to your amazon.com account and buy the book you want to.
7. Make the payment with the credit/debit card.
8. Then go to 'Manage your Kindle' page as shown below.

9. The book you have purchased appears here.
10. Click on the action button and choose 'Deliver to my ...' option.

11. Choose 'Your Kindle for PC' and then press 'Deliver' button.
12. Then the book is all set to appear in your Kindle for PC. If it is not appearing, use the refresh button shown inside while marking in the below image.

HAPPY READING...

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Science of Stock Market Investment

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy

I would like to share the news about my new e-book on stock market investment “The Science of Stock Market Investment - Practical Guide to Intelligent Investors”.

You would certainly like this stock market book


It is available at http://www.amazon.com/dp/B009XUI1X6 and can be read with Kindle device.

The e-book can also be read on your desktop or laptop by installing free ‘Kindle for PC’ application that can be downloaded from http://www.amazon.com/gp/kindle/pc/download.

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

E-books are here to stay

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy

On these days of Early October 2012, when I am writing this, it is difficult to miss someone or the other holding a Kindle and reading an e-book in London tubes (underground city trains). A remarkable thing indeed ! Amazon has reported its ebook sales has outnumbered the sales of printed books in the UK last year. This of course does not include the free ebooks that are downloaded for reading through Kindle.

That Fifty Shades of Grey by EL James has sold two million copies in the past four months indicates a change in trend in the publishing industry. The growth of ebooks and e-publishing is not only here to stay, but also set to grow.

Expenses related to printing and logistics of handling books & delivering them psychically are done away with e-books. Also the reader does not have to carry a box full of books while going out on vacation. Kindle is a cool device to read e-books and it can carry virtually very many number of books that you can afford to buy. The reader only pays a little, most of the times up to 50% of the print edition, for the e-books.

Amazon has introduced a program called KDP, Kindle Direct Publishing. People not winning approval from traditional publishers, who print books in lot and distribute through their established marketing network, can find it a revolutionary thing. However this sudden removal of entry barrier makes everyone with a laptop that has working keyboard and time to kill ‘author’, thus creating millions of useless, not so professional works that create chaos.

Quality is the word. Established publishing houses have in-house editorial teams that not only correct the language, but also validate factual errors. Not to say that every printed book is a master piece, but there is an element of scrutiny to select a manuscript to transform it into a book which at least ensures the publisher he will get the money he puts to print them out.

It is only logical to conclude the result. Exceptionally high number of sales for some book does not mean commercial success for the book. Unlike traditional publishing, in the virtual world due to lack of quality of large portion of self-published e-books and lack of attention to good works equation is tilted greatly. Here the author, not the publisher, will have to promote the book – not to mention the problem that reader confronts in deciding what to read from the cyber space.

E-books is a nascent things in India and provide huge potential for growth. Traditional publishing will have to accommodate the growth and both the forms will have to complement each other.

The good news is that to read an e-book bought from amazon.com you don’t need a kindle device. Kindle Aps for windows (of Ipad or whatever platform) can be installed and e-books can be read on your PCs.

E-books are here to stay and grow.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Public offers & retail participation

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy

Not really sure if many are following the market and hoping for a recovery or repeat of what we saw in 2003-2007. Beginning of bull runs are normally marked with underpriced public offers by the government. Maruti IPO in 2003 was a classical example that heralded a magical bull run.


If that is anything to go by, lukewarm response for the public offer of two state owned companies is paining. Retail portion for NTPC follow-on offer was subscribed 0.16 times and REC 0.22 times.

This is quite a contrast against the overwhelming response for NTPC’s IPO at Rs 62 back in 2004. If we go by the school of thought that low prices quality IPO are the indication of market revival we have miles to travel. Market, on the other hand, keeps everyone guessing.

Tuesday, February 02, 2010

CFP - Perhaps a must for Financial Professionals !!

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy


Financial Planning and investment service is one that needs a lot of professionalism, ethics and financial literacy. Ability to make potential client understand their financial needs, both short team and long term, and suggest – not sell - various options available in front of them is one of the most important traits an investment consultant should not only possess but also exhibit.

Most of the self-styled ‘financial advisors’ are merely agents. They are rarely equipped to offer advice and confront the queries. Thanks to IRDA’s initiatives in the recent past that anyone aspiring to become an insurance agent (both life & general) should sit for an exam and obtain license. To some extent this has helped the agent community at large obtain insurance literacy. Trust me, I know an agent for 19 years and he is yet to process/sell a term insurance plan.

Well, going forward, professionalism and knowledge would be key for the survival of not only insurance agent, but for anyone in the field of financial service. CFP is one such a step in that director. Certified Financial Planner is offered by Financial Planning Standard Board (FPSB) of India. One can attend the course from any of the Authorized Educational Providers and appear in the examination conducted by NSE IT.

Financial market is like an ocean that employs millions of people. Currently there are only 920 CFPs in India as per FPSB website. This number is expected to surge in the years to come as it offers high level of professionalism, job & business opportunities and international recognition.

Who knows, it might even become a statutory requirement . . .

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Term Vs Endowment Plans

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy

In response to the previous post "Jeevan Anand - Unique insurance plan" Vinod has commented:

"My experience on this:

Policy is good.

Since this is mainly life insurance, the cover to premium required ratio did not fit me well.

Since I was looking at life cover that could substitute my income (to a good extent) so financially my family is not in the woods to pay up all the emi's and liabilities. The premium required was too high. For those who can afford the premium this policy is great.
I have now decided to go for term policy for covering life and with the rest of money invest wisely (as much as possible ;) )

Best regards,
Vinod
********************************
Follow up communication:

Hi Vinod,
I am glad you said this. That is precisely how one should view insurance. But in India insurance is not considered as an instrument for life cover alone. People tend to ask, “What do I get back after paying my premium?” A reply that their family is protected against the financial loss due to an unlikely ecent of their sudden demise does not suffice.

That’s why penetration of term insurance plans are very very low in our country. Data reviels that only 26 per cent are insured in India. That too the average sum assured per policy is just over Rs 90,000. This is never going to be sufficient.

As you said, premium to sum assured ratio is high in India, because we rarely have term insurance policies. Invariably every policy holder expects a maturity value. This leave the insurers with no choice but to promote emdowment plans.

For instance, in one of LIC’s term assurance plans Anmol Jeevan – I, I would have to pay just Rs. 2,762 per year for a life cover of Rs 10 lakhs. In Amulya Jeevan, I would pay just Rs 5,850 per year for a life cover of Rs 25 lakhs.

Whereas as in Jeevan Saral (an Endowment plan), I would only get a coverage of Rs 1.25 lakhs for an annual premium of Rs 6,000.

But as everybody says, endowment plans gives back a maturity benefit which is not the case with term assurance plans. That does not matter if you are a streetsmart investor.

Friday, October 16, 2009

The bottom line is . . .

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy

What do you think is the objective of companies across the globe? Is it customer service, employee satisfaction, social responsibility? May be yes - may be no. Yes, because they are the means to achieve the primary objective and no, because they are the objectives on their own. Well, what could be the primary objective, if not only objective?

Let me borrow a line from Wikipedia to answer this question: “Businesses are formed to earn profit that will increase the wealth of its owners and grow the business itself” Every action and transaction (and of course inaction) has a financial implication. Ultimately everything boils down and sums up to greenback.

Balance sheet and Operating Margin are believed to be the touchstones – perhaps millstones if not managed properly - of any organization. Trial balance, inventory turnover, top line, bottom line, ROI, sequential growth etc are some of the commonly used terms in our daily life. The extent to which these buzzwords are fathomed is subject to debate. Therefore, we make a small attempt here to give a brief introduction to those terms and Financial Accounting concepts.

Firstly, every transaction and activity that has a financial implication is recorded. Such transactions are entered in two accounts at a time. This practice, known as ‘Double-entry bookkeeping system’, requires a debit entry in one of the accounts and a corresponding credit entry in another account.

For instance, an employee buys raw material with cash. This transaction needs to be recorded in two accounts, namely, cash and raw material accounts. In the cash account you make credit entry and a debit entry in the raw material accounts. This sounds good, but how do we determine what to debit and credit? How do we ensure we don’t debit an account that should indeed be credited? This is where golden rules of accounting come in handy.

Golden Rules of accounting:
  • 'Personal Account': Debit the Receiver & Credit the Giver
  • 'Real Account': Debit what comes in, Credit what goes out
  • 'Nominal Account': Debit all expenses / losses, credit all Incomes / Gains
Personal accounts are accounts maintained for individuals and organization with whom the company does business with

Real accounts are for real things that can either be seen, felt and touched – an exception being goodwill. In other words these represent assets.

Nominal account represents expenses, losses, incomes and gains.

In our case, cash as well as raw material accounts are real accounts. When the company buys raw material by paying cash, cash goes out and raw material comes in and hence they are credited and debited respectively.

As all transactions are equally recorded on debit and credit sides, sum of all debit sides values and credit side values of all the account put together would be equal at any given point in time. Such an exercise is known as Trial Balance which serves as a tool to detect errors, which can result in the totals not being equal.

With accounting entries are maintained for each and every transaction, they are used to arrive at the Final Accounts which comprises of P&L (Profit and Loss) account and Balance sheet at the end of the accounting period, which is normally a quarter.

Balance sheet is a snapshot of company’s assets and liabilities at the end of the period. P&L, on the other hand, is the summary of profit or loss the company has made for the entire period. You might have read items sounding like ‘assets stand at Rs 2,000 crore on 31-03-2009 and profit for the FY 08-09 was Rs 120 crores’. First one reflects balance sheet position on a given day and the latter draws reference from P&L statement for entire financial year.

While preparing Final Accounts at the end of accounting period, all account values should either be transferred to the balance sheet or to the P&L statement. Account that represent assets (such as inventories, investments, receivables etc) and liabilities (such as payables, owner’s equity, earning & surplus - liability from company’s point of view to its owners/share holder) – are transferred to balance sheet.

All others accounts, which can be classified under expenses, losses, incomes and gains, are transferred to P&L statement. Sales volume or revenue or gross profit comes at the top. Expenses, interest and tax are deducted from this to arrive at the net profit or earnings. Revenue, which appears on the top, is referred as top-line and the net profit, which appears at the bottom, is referred as bottom-line.

Lesser the expenses more the profitability or the ability to convert top-line into bottom-line is. Operating Margin is the ratio of the bottom-line (normally it is the operating income excluding other incomes/expenses and tax) to the top-line. A company reporting 30 % OPM saves Rs 30 as a profit by doing business for Rs 100 after meeting an expense of Rs 70.

Operating margin directly affects the profit. After all, it is the bottom-line that finally matters in business.

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

(Book) Prabhakaran - The Story of his struggle for Eelam

He is - perhaps was - a designated terrorist for some and an uncompromising freedom fighter for some. For the rest he was somewhere in between. Yes, I am talking about V. Prabhakaran, leader of the LTTE.

The story of his prolonged resistance and fierce confrontation with the Sri Lanka armed forces, nonetheless, ought to be studied, rather historically. Similarly, Indian involvement in the ethinic conflict and its consequences warrant a special mention.

I have made a sincere attempt to view these things objectively and retrospectively through the book 'Prabhakaran - The Story of his struggle for Eelam', in English. Though this is the English version of his biography 'Prabhakaran - A life' (பிரபாகரன் - à®’à®°ு வாà®´்க்கை) authored by me in Tamil, English version contains more information relevant to non-Tamil speaking people in India and international community.

It can be bought online and read as a Kindle book.

Monday, March 02, 2009

The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009!!

This is what Warren Buffet had to say in his annual letter to shareholders.

******
Our decrease in net worth during 2008 was $11.5 billion, which reduced the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 9.6%. Over the last 44 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $70,530, a rate of 20.3% compounded annually.

The table on the preceding page, recording both the 44-year performance of Berkshire’s book value and the S&P 500 index, shows that 2008 was the worst year for each. The period was devastating as well for corporate and municipal bonds, real estate and commodities. By yearend, investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game.

As the year progressed, a series of life-threatening problems within many of the world’s great financial institutions was unveiled. This led to a dysfunctional credit market that in important respects soon turned non-functional. The watchword throughout the country became the creed I saw on restaurant walls when I was young: “In God we trust; all others pay cash.”

By the fourth quarter, the credit crisis, coupled with tumbling home and stock prices, had produced a paralyzing fear that engulfed the country. A freefall in business activity ensued, accelerating at a pace that I have never before witnessed. The U.S. – and much of the world – became trapped in a vicious negative-feedback cycle. Fear led to business contraction, and that in turn led to even greater fear.

This debilitating spiral has spurred our government to take massive action. In poker terms, the Treasury and the Fed have gone “all in.” Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone’s guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation.

Moreover, major industries have become dependent on Federal assistance, and they will be followed by cities and states bearing mind-boggling requests. Weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political challenge. They won’t leave willingly.

Whatever the downsides may be, strong and immediate action by government was essential last year if the financial system was to avoid a total breakdown. Had that occurred, the consequences for every area of our economy would have been cataclysmic. Like it or not, the inhabitants of Wall Street, Main Street and the various Side Streets of America were all in the same boat.

Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 211/2% prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges.

Without fail, however, we’ve overcome them. In the face of those obstacles – and many others – the real standard of living for Americans improved nearly seven-fold during the 1900s, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose from 66 to 11,497. Compare the record of this period with the dozens of centuries during which humans secured only tiny gains, if any, in how they lived. Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America’s best days lie ahead.

Take a look again at the 44-year table on page 2. In 75% of those years, the S&P stocks recorded a gain. I would guess that a roughly similar percentage of years will be positive in the next 44. But neither Charlie Munger, my partner in running Berkshire, nor I can predict the winning and losing years in advance. (In our usual opinionated view, we don’t think anyone else can either.) We’re certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 – and, for that matter, probably well beyond – but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall.

In good years and bad, Charlie and I simply focus on four goals:
(1) maintaining Berkshire’s Gibraltar-like financial position, which features huge amounts of excess liquidity, near-term obligations that are modest, and dozens of sources of earnings and cash;
(2) widening the “moats” around our operating businesses that give them durable competitive advantages;
(3) acquiring and developing new and varied streams of earnings;
(4) expanding and nurturing the cadre of outstanding operating managers who, over the years, have delivered Berkshire exceptional results.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Book on Prabakaran

Most people approach Prabakaran and his widely known LTTE on emotional ground. Either they blindly support or they blindly oppose. Both there approaches fail to paint complete picture about him. His organization was started with a rusted revolver, but now Prabakaran is running a government. He possesses police force, judicial system, army, navy and air force ... everything that a nation ought to has.

Before arriving into any judgment about Prabakaran and his outfit, it becomes imperative to understand the history of Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict. What was the beginning point the endless war between Sinhalese and Tamils? What started it and why? How long this fire is going to be on? Can the self determination question of Tamils could be resolved only at war front? What are the innocent civilians caught in the the crossfire going to see a dawn? Is Tamil Eelam the only solution? Can Prabakaran win that for his men? Or is everything is going to end at his demise?

LTTE is a banned organization in India. Prabakaran is a main accused in Rajiv Gandhi's murder. Many countries in the world have banned the tigers. Sri Lankan government does not show any signs of putting an end to the war as it believes tigers can be completely destroyed. What is in store for the rebels? What is going to be its future?

The book on Prabakaran tries to examine these questions.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Free stock market tips india

Just came across this paragraph from fortnightly investment magazine 'Capital market' .. It is not only impressive but thought provoking as well.

"Many research analysts do not invest in equities, but preach to investors on what to buy, hold or sell. As per the present regulation, a research analyst needs to disclose his holding in the company that he is commenting. It would be far better to make it mandatory for the analyst to invest a certain pre-defined sum in the recommended stocks for the period mentioned in the research report. This would definitely improve the sense of responsibility and accountability in the research community. It would also provide on-the-job training to analysts and make them aware of the risks involved in equity investment. Remember those who actually invest are shrewder than those who simply preach"

When someone shows up in response to the question Who is the

best stock market analyst in India

, better beware !!

Monday, November 03, 2008

Indo-US nuclear deal.. - A look back

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy

That was something unprecedented in the history of Indian democracy. We had never seen such a sensational 'display of money' on the parliamentary floor. Trust me those were some of the tragic cum hilarious scenes we witnessed during the recent 'no confidence motion' and it could match any nail biting one day cricket game. You know what I am coming to. Yes, it is about the widely debated Indo-US 'civil' nuclear deal.

The Unites States Congress which is the House of Representatives (akin to Lok Sabha) and the Senate which is the upper house have given their blessing to this historic deal on September 28th and October 1st respectively. There was a sense of vindication, according to the Indian ambassador to the US Ronen Sen.

What makes this deal so special and time critical? Does India really surrender its national interest and sovereignty with this deal? A little recap from the history would help answer these questions.

The United States has the reputation of being the only nation in the history of mankind to deploy nuclear weapon and massacre more than 200 thousand people in August 1945. That eventually brought the World War II to an end.

Postwar era saw the world dividing into two camps, needless to mention American camp & Soviet camp. Mutual suspicion, secret nuclear programs and arm race was inevitable. Need for checking the proliferation of nuclear arms was felt and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT or NNPT) was born thanks to the efforts from Ireland and Finland. That was in 1968.

NPT recognized the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China as nuclear weapon states (NWS) while the others were identified as non nuclear weapon states (NNWS). All the nations recognized by the UN signed NPT except India, Pakistan and Israel. For India, NPT did not prevent proliferation but actually classified the counties as ‘nuclear haves’ and ‘nuclear not haves’ as it only prevents ‘not have’ nations developing atomic armory after 1968.

Being a non-signatory of NPT, there was no restriction on India for conducting nuclear test. It perhaps carried out a test in 1974 to be coded as ‘Smiling Buddha’ which provoked serious reactions around the globe. Nuclear fuel supplying countries formed Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that subsequently decided not to assist India in the civil nuclear energy space.

There were 34 long years before this ban could relax. Indo-US deal enables India to access outside civil nuclear technologies and fuel, while still being a non-signatory of NPT. This is the best things that could happen to India.

World’s largest democracy only has to assure that it would not mix its civil and military nuclear establishments, and let IAEA supervise its civilian atomic power station. An estimated 14 out of the existing 22 reactors are to be used for civil and the rest for military purpose.

Following the foot prints of the U.S, France has inked an agreement to sell nuclear technology and reactors to India. What France plans to sell to India is the large 1,600 MW reactor, indeed, the largest of kind in commercial operations in the world, says the Hindu Business Line.

We have an installed capacity of 145,587.97 MW, primarily sourced from coal fired thermal power. France, on the other hand, generates 78.8 % of its electricity from nuclear power. We are at 2.9%. A long way to go indeed! We are far from uninterrupted power supply.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

1930 around the corner?

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy

When Christopher Columbus landed in North America he would not have foreseen a financial institution to be established by his future fellow immigrants from western Europe, let alone that institution sending tremor to the financial market across the globe. Yes, I am talking about Lehman Brothers.

Henry Lehman was just 23-year-old when immigrated to the United States from Germany in 1844. He choose to settle down in the southern state of Alabama. Two of his brothers Emanuel & Mayer too took separate ships to the American shore and three of them formed Lehman Brothers in 1850. They took cotton trade as their primary business in which they excelled. In the next few years the center of cotton trade shifted from the south to New York City, which of course was - as it is today - the center of trading & commission business.

Civil war erupted 1982 and Lehman brothers financed Alabama state's reconstruction program. That was the beginning and the end came a couple of days ago. In the meantime they have grew, grew continually. They underwrote securities - initial public offers in particular - and did almost everything in the financial market. It did merger with American express and then de-merged again in 1994.

Subprime crisis that surfaced late last year forced Lehman Brothers to close down subprime division 'BNC Mortgage' and sending around 1,200 people home. On September 13 it decided to take bankruptcy protection. Its valuation based on September 15 stock price stood at $130 million. It's reported revenue for 2007 was 454 times more than this.

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Sixth months ago Bear Stearns, the fifth largest bank, was on the prink of bankruptcy. JP Morgan Chase bought it out for dirt cheap $2 per share. That was not alone. Just recently Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were bailed out by the US government. Now even before this 'broke' news from America's fourth largest investment bank Lehman could sink in, even more troubling stories come out. American International Group (AIG), the largest insurance firm in the US, would become next Lehman unless it gets around $70 - $80 billion. Luckily FED has come forward to perform rescue act. Likewise Merrill Lynch & Co was luck enough to find a buyer in Bank of America.

The US economy has been the driving force of the global economy, whether we like it or not. Any trouble in the US is not a standalone subject in the current world where everything is interconnected and eventually nothing is insulted in the great financial eco-system.

Already some analysts are talking about 'another' great repression of 1930 that we have only studied in history books. But we are unlikely to see 'another' great depression, but a greater or lesser depression, because the world economy now is interconnected while it was insulated back in 1930.

Friday, August 01, 2008

Troubled waters - Indian economy

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy


I was watching the US market opening report on UTVI last night and the female reporter from NYSE was elaborating the jobless claims in that country reaching 44 thousands plus level, which apparently is the highest since 2003. (We all know that 2003 is the year when the market bottomed out, at least in India with SENSEX around 3,000 mark) The united states is a strong economy where people spend a lot and they spend most of their incomes and borrowings. Therefore unemployment figures do not board well for the largest economy in the world, which not only determine the destiny of investments in that country but elsewhere around the globe.

When we talk about unemployment problem, what went unnoticed is the textile industry in India. In the last one year 3.5 lakh jobs have been lost in this space. There are already reports about negative inflation-adjusted salary hike in the much discussed IT sector where smaller players might loose their skin over the time. You should not have missed the news that Hexaware is trimming down their work force.

Automobile industry in India, which is already struggling to swallow the increased input costs, might face slowdown in demand thanks to RBI's move of hiking interest rate to combat inflation. Governor Y.V.Reddy in his last monitory policy announcement asserted that the idea is bring the inflation down to 7 % by 2009 March from the current level around 12%. Inflation is at 13 year high now. The interest rate was around 17% in 1995, which is exactly that period before 13 years. So, more rate hikes on the cards?

One areas that bestowed unprecedented return, namely real estates, is already facing softening demand and prices. Real estate and construction companies' decline was double that the average decline produced by the market on the bourses. In 2008, around 80 million sq ft (45 million sq ft in 2007) of commercial space supply is expected; indicating that supply is running ahead of demand. With the lending rate going up and the era of easy money is a thing of the past, one does not need to be rocket scientist to predict further decline in property prices across the country. Dalal street investment journal quotes on the current issue: "As for the NAV, a study states that 30 per cent decline in property prices leads to 50 per cent erosion of NAV and hence with property prices softening, NAV of companies with high land bank needs to be revisited.

Needless to say, banking was understandably the worst hit by inflation. Softening credit growth, upward trend in NPA etc can be expected. The, "Sir, would you be interested in any personal loans?" calls you normally get private banks on your mobile might change as, "Sir, we have an attractive fixed deposit scheme offering...". Most of the bank now trade 40-50 down from their 52 week high. They are also affected by treasury losses due to interest rate increment. This was evident in ICICI bank's recently announced quarterly results. The bank's net was dragged down by the treasury loss.

On top of all these we should not forget that our economy is still not detached from the agriculture whose fortune heavily depends on monsoon. With around 60 % of our population still in rural area basing their lives on the oldest vocation on this earth, severe draught for a couple of years can put some brakes on the growth.

Beware, cost of living, cost of health care, cost of politics (price tag for MPs), cost of housing, cost of education and of course the cost of girlfriends are on the rise and they are unlikely to come down.

What lies ahead? Have we shifted from a 'sustained bull run' to a 'sustained bear run' with periodic correction on the upper side? Has the India growth story faded? Are global slowdown and global commodity prices press the India Inc? What lies ahead?

Yes, it is troubled waters. FISH, IF YOU CAN & IF YOU HAVE HAVE THE WILL...

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Real estate FDI inflow up nearly five-fold

- Chellamuthu Kuppusamy
Quite understandably there are reports on surging inflation, increasing interest rates and the potential impact on housing sector etc flowing across. This, along with FIIs pulling out from Indian equity market, is not surprising indeed. But here is an interesting piece of information that goes against this theory. FDI investment in real estate sector has increased nearly five-fold this year.

Courtesy: Hindu business line.


New Delhi, June 24"
The Indian real estate and housing space emerged as the darling of foreign investors in 2007-08, clinching FDI equity inflows of about Rs 8,749 crore, a near five-fold increase over FY07.
“The investors have seen that the real estate potential in India is huge. The returns are quite attractive. In fact, we see the trend picking up even further this year as the prices are getting more attractive for investors,” Mr Ramesh Sanka, Chief Financial Officer at DLF said.
Late last year, DLF Ltd had sold 49 per cent stake in eight residential project SPVs to private equity investors for a total consideration of Rs 1,675 crore.
A Merrill Lynch & Co entity had bought 49 per cent equity in seven residential projects in Chennai, Bangalore, Kochi and Indore for Rs 1,481 crore. The company — headed by Mr K.P. Singh — has also diluted 49 per cent stake, in another middle-income housing project in Panchkula, Haryana, to Brahma Investments for Rs 194 crore.
According to data released by the Government on Tuesday, the real estate sector, thrown open in 2004-05, saw the FDI picking up significantly between FY05 and FY08; it was Rs 171 crore in 2005-06 surging to Rs 2,121 crore in 2006-07.
“Over the last three years, there has been a build-up in investor interest. We saw the impact of that interest and euphoria for FY07 and FY08 as new townships and projects were announced. Depending on the asset class within real estate sector, the average rate of return stood at 25-35 per cent for India, against a global average of single digit return,” Mr Sanjay Verma, Executive Managing Director, South Asia, of Cushman & Wakefield said.
“However, at the beginning of the current year we have seen some asset bubble deflation. With prices moving southwards, choppiness in the stock markets, pressure on interest rates and global issues, while deals will still happen, pricing will be the question,” Mr Verma added.